Saturday, May 16, 2009

3rd round predictions and recap of the 2nd round

original post

We were off pretty badly this round.

We both had Vancouver, Detroit and the Caps. I picked Carolina and you picked Boston.

50% and 25%...pathetic.

The Caps and Boston could have easily won their series. The former was pretty much reffed out of the series and the difference in the latter was a game 7 OT goal.

That being said...

Pittsburgh v. Carolina

I have to admit I haven't seen much of Carolina this post season. Versus and NBC seem to have determined that we are all closet Penguins fans and that we really just want to watch the Pens series. Now I'm glad that I got to see all 7 games of the Pens v. Caps, but if the league was run by half intelligent monkeys, they would've staggered the games so that there was a single eastern conference game and a single western conference game on the same night. Instead, the big brains decided that all eastern games would be on the same night and all western games would be on a different night.

I seem to remember that the MLB, NFL have this conundrum figured out. I think that other than the first round, the NBA has it figured out as well. The NHL? umm...

Anyway, I have no idea about this Carolina team. My impressions are that this team is overly dependent on Staal, but they did come back to be NJD, something the Flyers probably never could do.

One stat that continues to amaze me is the penalty per game:

link

Currently, Detroit leads, but they are generally a pretty disciplined, non dirty team. Pittsburgh is SUPPOSEDLY a skill team, but they are skilled in "non-pretty" hockey. Their fore checking and back checking is very good and Crosby is amazing around the crease. His eye/hand coordination is baffling. He'd be a great contact hitter in the MLB. The question remains, are Detroit and Pittsburgh getting preferential treatment?

It goes without saying that the winner will most likely be determined by the way the game is reffed. I think Pittsburgh seems capable of playing well when the ref swallows the whistle and when the calls go their way. I have yet to see one game of theirs when the reffing was lopsided against them.

That being said, I haven't been impressed by the Pens' victims up to this point. The Flyers were a joke and still almost pushed them to a game 7, until they imploded up 3 goals at home. !?!?!? How often does that happen? I still think that a performance like that almost demands scuttling the team and starting anew.

The Caps, up 2-0 proceed to lose 3 in a row and then fall apart in game 7 after a marginal call. These two teams were psychologically challenged: mentally fragile and merely needed to be pushed over. However, Pittsburgh barely beat both teams.

Predictions in the new NHL are difficult, because you must take into account the obvious favoritism that is pervasive. People will dismiss these conspiracy theories, because it is very easy and very lazy minded to do so. When the government and the financial sector is willing to cook the books and cheat, why is it so hard to fathom that it happens in the NHL?

So, on a level playing field, the Canes win in 6. What will most likely happen? Pens in 5.



On to the western conference, I have been pretty underwhelmed by Detroit. They don't seem to have the polish they had last year. Interestingly enough, Datsyuk despite his lack of scoring, seems to be playing pretty well. The only fault I can see is that he makes passes to people who aren't there, but should be there. Perhaps his role, without any sniper linemates should be as a checking center who would take on toews, kane etc.

Nonetheless, it is hard to pick against Detroit. I like Datsyuk, so my blinders are on in regards to the obvious favoritism, but Detroit for the most part does it the right way. They have loyalty to their players, they build their core through the draft, and pick up a few free agents to round out the club. Remove Hossa and Rafalski and they are still pretty much the same club.

Detroit in 7.

1 comment:

  1. Grit and goaltending get it done.

    I'll take the Canes in 6. Seeing Orpik getting knocked around by the Caps gave me pause. I also think they can neutralize Malkin, and like them better on the blueline with Gonchar gimpy. I agree the reffing will be a factor, but you have to like Ward over Fleury at a minimum, and if they control Crosby in the crease, they will be fine.

    I also take the Red Wings in 5. I love the BlackHawks and would take many of their players in a heartbeat, starting with Keith despite his gaffe today. So with the benefit of seeing the Wings win today, I'm not sure Khabi can play much better, tho the Black Hawks had their chances. I think the Wings tighten it up from here and the Hawks will struggle both opening up the game, and then profiting from up when they manage it.

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