1) If you recall your early betting line on the phils (pre NLDS), I think the phils were 4.25 to 1 to get past both the Dodgers and whoever they faced in the Series. Hard to believe that only fell to 2.5 to 1 post-NLCS.
2) During regular season, Phils won series 2-1, beating Burnette, losing to "Petite" and beating Sabathia. Starters were Myers, Hamels and Happ. Lidge blew save against Petite and got loss, then blew save vs Sabathia, but Phils came back and won.
3) Madson and Durbin handled Yanks well. Lidge obviously didn't. Condrey also did yeoman work to pick up the win in the extra inning rubber match after Lidge's blown save.
4) All three phils starters gave them quality starts, incl Hamels, who would have won the game if Lidge saves. Now in the series, it seems likely that only Hamels sees a start, and he's the current weakest link. Could they possibly trot out Myers or even Happ to start again at this point?
4a) The Yanks hitters that most scare me vs Phils are Texeira and Cabrera. A-rod and Jeter appear so dialed in that I can only hope they fade.
5) Ruiz, Ibanez, and Victorino all made important offensive contributions in the reg season vs skanks. Ben Francisco ate them alive while at Cleveland, while Cliff Lee shut them down in the home opener of their new stadium.
6) While Skanks starting pitching has been impeccable in playoffs, I don't know if I'd be feeling that comfortable heading into the series. Phils owned Burnette this year, while it seems they never have that much success vs Petite even tho they should have beat him this year. But they also seem to be able to get to Sabathia, both this year with the Yankees (even tho it was relatively early in the season and he's been pitching much better), and last year in the playoffs vs Milwaukee. And if the Yanks starters falter, I think the Phils can do some damage against the Yanks bullpen, except Rivera of course, but hopefully the Skanks wear him out at home trying to hold serve in the first couple of games.
7) I think if Lee wins game one, Hamels gets game 2 -- just like against the Dodgers (you don't think Cholly's superstitious?). If Lee loses, I could see Pedro instead in game 2 and Hamels in game 3, back in Philly where he seems to do better.
8) Phils got a big 3 run HR by Mayberry to help them win one of the games during the regular season. Mayberry's def not on the series roster.
9) With DH, Ibanez will hit but Francisco will field. So how do you set up the lineup? I don't think Cholly messes with Rollins-Victorino at the top, and Utley-Howawrd-Werth-Ibanez, seem to be locked. So, if that's the case, you gotta bat Francisco 7th, 8th or 9th, which means ending the order with 3 righties, and possibly demoting Ruiz to 9th despite his hot hitting ways.
My radical idea. Leave Rollins-Victorino alone. Bat Francisco third. Howard 4th. Werth 5th. Utley 6th. Ibanez 7th. Feliz 8th. Ruiz 9th.
Rationale: While Rollins and Victorino rarely seem to get going at the same time, it's hard to shut both of them down, and they are a pain in the ass once they get on base. Francisco has both speed and pop, so he's a good candidate to bat in front of Howard to lessen the benefits of bringing in a lefty to face Utley, Howard and Ibanez in succession. Francisco doesn't hit for average or produce runs like Utley, but I think Utley's hurt -- when everyone else is hitting and he's not, something's up. So push Francisco up. Then Werth splits Howard and Ibanez, and you drop Utley to 7th, where his many recent k's don't hurt so much, but his team leading OBP might help set up Feliz and Ruiz. Plus you take a little pressure off him in case he really is hurt.
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