I say use Pedro in the pen, which is the Phillies weakness right now, and keep a 5-man rotation with Moyers in the back. You can't just look at ERA. But you can't just look at wins. To steal from awful Denise Richards, "it's complicated."
The near-term schedule doesn't support a 6-man rotation. It's actually a good time to keep a 5-man rotation, cuz it gives the excuse of letting the phils skip a moyer start, which might help him without offending him. Moyers has pitched better of late, and for whatever reason, the team plays for him. So keep him in there. With Happ remaining solid plus Lee, we can afford to let Moyer pitch.
I am much more worried about the end of the staff, where Madson has once again shown he's much better as a set up guy than a closer. With Durbin so suddenly questionable and Lidge a rollercoaster ride, I think it behooves the Phils to find an alt for Lidge, and Pedro might be that guy. Certainly Moyer isn't. So why "waste" Pedro in the rotation, where it's not clear he's going to give us more innings than Moyer (even if he leaves more often with the lead). Better to pressure Lidge now.
Bring Pedro up now. Tell him he is primarily going to be used if Lidge melts down or needs a blow. And then he also gets first dibs on a long relief effort should a current starter get rocked or hurt.
Alternatively, I wouldn't be opposed to Martinez taking Chan Ho's role, and using Chan Ho to pressure Lidge as alt closer. But Park seems comfortable, and Martinez has proved he's good out of the pen, so I'd rather use Pedro and all his experience to save Lidge's ass when he needs it, which is every 3rd appearance or so. I'm not dissing Lidge -- I don't think he's healthy and he's not admitting it. Since he can still be effective, I think the best bet may be simply to reduce his load. He might even relax a little and pitch better.
Bottom line -- my bold statement is that this team might be best if it manages to make it impossible for Pedro to find a spot. Happ just shut one door. Let's see if Moyer now has an answer, since he's now officially on the hot seat. My guess is he responds. I think his 5+ ERA is worrying, but as much a red herring as his team leading win total.
If he does, then it's clear we have to put Pedro in the pen, so then I'd much rather he press Lidge or have a backup to Madsen and Park for when they go bad, which is once in a while. But if Lidge turns it on, Madsen remains solid as set up, Chan in long relief and other sticky situations, Romero, Durbin and Condrey coming back, maybe even Myers, and Walker and Eyre continuing, for the most part, to get it done, then maybe Martinez never finds a spot.
Chemistry can be everything in the playoffs. The best team only wins sometimes. Last year, Stairs, Moyer, even Bruntlett made major contributions, and this year, not as much. But I think it's silly to think you can always plug in better stats as an indicator of performance. Once in a while you get a CLiff Lee, other times it's Andy Ashby.
I don't care what Cairo's hitting. I'll stick with Bruntlett. Same with Stairs over Mayberry. And, for now, Moyer over Martinez. I think Cholly feels that and will do the right thing. It worked for Burrell last year, and Rollins this year.
And is anyone except me worried about what happens if Ruiz or Bako go down? Or whether Howard could use a few days off between now and October?
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