Phillies are my current jam, although I have to say I'm a little interested in what the Flyers will do this year with Pronger in the back, preventing our dandy D-men from being abused. Washington was the worst with their down low cycling game, and of course Pittsburgh's forwards running everyone. Washington's puck possession was like watching an adult play with a child where they put their hand on the kid's head and the kid flails their arms trying to hit them. However, I am really looking forward to seeing what he does to Kunitz and others. Pronger is a guy who gets it, who understands that if they target your key players, you target theirs. He plays the "Chicago way." You put one of ours in the hospital, we put one of yours in the morgue.
Eagles? meh. I'm sure that will change a bit when the games start up, but I don't see how vick fits in. I hope that he never lines up under center, and we only see him as a half back or a WR. I'm not 100% against him throwing, but I am 100% him being a QB. maybe once a game, he and mcnabb motion, and switch positions. I don't want to see mcnabb blocking ever or even catching. they could do a flea flicker or something.
I don't understand the resistance of resigning runyan, who despite having bad knees was outstanding in the playoffs last year.
The defense looks like it could be a disaster. unless youth and speed make up for everything lost, they are in trouble.
Thursday, August 27, 2009
DUDE, Laird Hamilton Ad on Putting on the foil!
reading recent posts and I see an ad with Laird's mug on it.
Saturday, August 15, 2009
No more priv-lidges
Times up for Lidge. Look at his post-game comments. Full of everything's fine, but then a lot of "justs" and "buts." Cholly's already taken a bite using Madson and Durbin as closers, and letting Lidge try to work out of his shit in non-save opportunities.
This is untenable. He's not working his way thru it. I'm not saying panic. I'm just saying that he needs to be relieved of closer duties until he works his shit out.
MAybe Cholly will surprise me with some sort of engineering within the existing staff. I hear they are looking at getting Wagner back from the Mets. ?? The guy's been dissing us since he left.
But we're looking at a situation where neither Madson nor Lidge can reliably close. I'd rule out Myers due to injury, and who knows about Durbin, Condrey, Romero and Bastardo's (who no one talks about anymore) injuries. And Moyer ain't no closer.
So my fear is that leaves Park moving toward the closer role, and Moyer taking his long relief stints.
I just think it would have been stronger to leave Park and Moyer where they were, and use Pedro to pressure/relieve Lidge.
Turning to Eagles, think I am officially worried, perhaps without cause.
The OL including the TE is a mess with all the new faces and injuries. While McCoy looked good and Elba (?) as well, they really need another runner besides Westbrook. It's not clear they are ever going to get enough from Booker.
The defense is down its signal caller (Bradley) and longtime spiritual leader (Dawkins), not to mention its revered former coordinator, and mysteriously keeps bringing in/looking at DLs even tho it looks like they are stacked there. I saw one report that they looked at Burgess. ??
OTOH, it was interesting that Vick looked pretty sharp, is already familiar with the WC offense, and Reid called him a QB first. I think Eagles are going to find a way to, besides other things, give Vick 5 or so pass attempts every game. He's gonna play and he's gonna get a chance to throw the ball. This might actually take some pressure off McNabb and help him be better.
But here's how they could blow it. Even tho they realize what I just wrote, they will, out of deference to Donovan, limit Vick unnecessarily until McNabb struggles, as he invariably will. Neurosis follows.
Wouldn't it be better to just use Vick regularly up front, in or out of the red zone, even when Mcnabb is doing ok? The point is, make it about mixing it up purely to put pressure on opposing defenses, rather than having Vick available should McNabb stink the place up. If you do it the way I say, maybe pressure lessens on McNabb. If you position Vick as merely a backup until further notice, he will nip at McNabb's heels all year long.
I have spoken.
This is untenable. He's not working his way thru it. I'm not saying panic. I'm just saying that he needs to be relieved of closer duties until he works his shit out.
MAybe Cholly will surprise me with some sort of engineering within the existing staff. I hear they are looking at getting Wagner back from the Mets. ?? The guy's been dissing us since he left.
But we're looking at a situation where neither Madson nor Lidge can reliably close. I'd rule out Myers due to injury, and who knows about Durbin, Condrey, Romero and Bastardo's (who no one talks about anymore) injuries. And Moyer ain't no closer.
So my fear is that leaves Park moving toward the closer role, and Moyer taking his long relief stints.
I just think it would have been stronger to leave Park and Moyer where they were, and use Pedro to pressure/relieve Lidge.
Turning to Eagles, think I am officially worried, perhaps without cause.
The OL including the TE is a mess with all the new faces and injuries. While McCoy looked good and Elba (?) as well, they really need another runner besides Westbrook. It's not clear they are ever going to get enough from Booker.
The defense is down its signal caller (Bradley) and longtime spiritual leader (Dawkins), not to mention its revered former coordinator, and mysteriously keeps bringing in/looking at DLs even tho it looks like they are stacked there. I saw one report that they looked at Burgess. ??
OTOH, it was interesting that Vick looked pretty sharp, is already familiar with the WC offense, and Reid called him a QB first. I think Eagles are going to find a way to, besides other things, give Vick 5 or so pass attempts every game. He's gonna play and he's gonna get a chance to throw the ball. This might actually take some pressure off McNabb and help him be better.
But here's how they could blow it. Even tho they realize what I just wrote, they will, out of deference to Donovan, limit Vick unnecessarily until McNabb struggles, as he invariably will. Neurosis follows.
Wouldn't it be better to just use Vick regularly up front, in or out of the red zone, even when Mcnabb is doing ok? The point is, make it about mixing it up purely to put pressure on opposing defenses, rather than having Vick available should McNabb stink the place up. If you do it the way I say, maybe pressure lessens on McNabb. If you position Vick as merely a backup until further notice, he will nip at McNabb's heels all year long.
I have spoken.
Friday, August 14, 2009
Mea Culpa
Well my last post was pretty much all wrong. Moyer's been sent to the pen, Martinez did OK in his first start, and Howard seems to be waking up. Still, tho everyone seems to be pro-Martinez since he won his last start, his ERA was 5.40
Still, I don't know where that leaves us. What will be Moyer's role? Long relief if another starter fails? Middle relief where Chan Ho Park has been doing good work? That would seem to make the most sense and push Park to later innings given that he's been pretty solid. Still, this would be fixing what isn't broken.
If Park could back up Lidge, then I think I'm OK with it. But we can't afford to fuck up Park by jerking him around. But Moyer at closer seems nuts given how many hits he gives up. He might be, tho I'm not sure, an interesting complement to Madson, their resident fireballer. If he could take some load off Madson, and let Madson take some load off Lidge, then maybe that works, but Madson has been pretty spotty pitching in the 9th inning I think.
But bottom line is that something has to be done about Lidge. I like that Cholly's not panicking, but the leash should be getting ever shorter. It would be amazing if Myers rides in on a white charger and shores up the back of the pen. At this point, however, I remain convinced that Pedro could have helped the back of the pen more than Moyer, and that to whatever extent Pedro outpitches Moyer as starter, it will not outweigh the apparent marginalization of Moyer in terms of the overall staff since I really don't see where Moyer fills in.
The final redeeming option might be if they plan to use Moyer to spell Hamels once or twice between now and the end of the season. It would be nice if he could just work his way out of it, but I think it behooves the Phillies to consider his workload last year, his abbreviated off year and his history of injuries. Maybe I little rest is what he needs, not more work. Plus, they have a couple double headers coming up and could use both of those games to give Moyer a start and someone else a day's extra rest.
Finally, I think they have to use Matt Stairs more. Should be first PH off the bench. His on base avg is in the top 5 for the team. I know he's a terrible baserunner, but he gets on a lot more than Dobbs or Bruntlett. Anytime they are down 2 or more runs, he should be first PH.
And finally, finally. Let's talk about the resurgence of Jimmy Rollins. He's up to 32 BB for the year, which also holds down his woeful OBP. But while he's hitting better, I think the salient point that I've not seen reported elsewhere, is in the 28 games that Rollins has earned his 32 BB, the Phils are 21-7. It's amazing that he frequently goes 6 or more games in a row without getting a walk. He had a stretch of 18 games (!) this season in which he didn't get a walk.
Turning to the Sneagles, I have to say I am surprised at the substantial resistance to the Vick signing. I'm as surprised as anyone, but am also intrigued of what defenses would do faced with McNabb, Westbrook, Jackson, Maclin, and Vick on the same snap.
It's surprising that some people are apparently selling their season tix in protest. Seems extreme. I think the eagles made a good move, even if it's some sort of devil bargain. He did his time, unlike many celebs. Let's see if he makes good.
But ultimately you have to wonder about the choices this city makes sometimes. We've already talked about how they can't seem to get rid of heart and soul players fast enuff -- esp the Flyers with Lindros, BrindAmout, Podein, Upshall, and now Knuble. And now we get Emery. But the Eagles aren't far behind, losing guys like Trotter, Vincent, Buckhalter and now Dawkins. And then we get Vick.
Which is why you have to admire, mostly, the Phils moves of late, notwithstanding Eaton and Jenkins, who apparently are still on the payroll. The Cliff Lee acquiition has obviously been a home run, and for the first time I can remember, they have too many pitching options, save for a another hard throwing righty starter. My biggest concern, after Lidge, is that they are looking a little thin at catcher.
Still, I don't know where that leaves us. What will be Moyer's role? Long relief if another starter fails? Middle relief where Chan Ho Park has been doing good work? That would seem to make the most sense and push Park to later innings given that he's been pretty solid. Still, this would be fixing what isn't broken.
If Park could back up Lidge, then I think I'm OK with it. But we can't afford to fuck up Park by jerking him around. But Moyer at closer seems nuts given how many hits he gives up. He might be, tho I'm not sure, an interesting complement to Madson, their resident fireballer. If he could take some load off Madson, and let Madson take some load off Lidge, then maybe that works, but Madson has been pretty spotty pitching in the 9th inning I think.
But bottom line is that something has to be done about Lidge. I like that Cholly's not panicking, but the leash should be getting ever shorter. It would be amazing if Myers rides in on a white charger and shores up the back of the pen. At this point, however, I remain convinced that Pedro could have helped the back of the pen more than Moyer, and that to whatever extent Pedro outpitches Moyer as starter, it will not outweigh the apparent marginalization of Moyer in terms of the overall staff since I really don't see where Moyer fills in.
The final redeeming option might be if they plan to use Moyer to spell Hamels once or twice between now and the end of the season. It would be nice if he could just work his way out of it, but I think it behooves the Phillies to consider his workload last year, his abbreviated off year and his history of injuries. Maybe I little rest is what he needs, not more work. Plus, they have a couple double headers coming up and could use both of those games to give Moyer a start and someone else a day's extra rest.
Finally, I think they have to use Matt Stairs more. Should be first PH off the bench. His on base avg is in the top 5 for the team. I know he's a terrible baserunner, but he gets on a lot more than Dobbs or Bruntlett. Anytime they are down 2 or more runs, he should be first PH.
And finally, finally. Let's talk about the resurgence of Jimmy Rollins. He's up to 32 BB for the year, which also holds down his woeful OBP. But while he's hitting better, I think the salient point that I've not seen reported elsewhere, is in the 28 games that Rollins has earned his 32 BB, the Phils are 21-7. It's amazing that he frequently goes 6 or more games in a row without getting a walk. He had a stretch of 18 games (!) this season in which he didn't get a walk.
Turning to the Sneagles, I have to say I am surprised at the substantial resistance to the Vick signing. I'm as surprised as anyone, but am also intrigued of what defenses would do faced with McNabb, Westbrook, Jackson, Maclin, and Vick on the same snap.
It's surprising that some people are apparently selling their season tix in protest. Seems extreme. I think the eagles made a good move, even if it's some sort of devil bargain. He did his time, unlike many celebs. Let's see if he makes good.
But ultimately you have to wonder about the choices this city makes sometimes. We've already talked about how they can't seem to get rid of heart and soul players fast enuff -- esp the Flyers with Lindros, BrindAmout, Podein, Upshall, and now Knuble. And now we get Emery. But the Eagles aren't far behind, losing guys like Trotter, Vincent, Buckhalter and now Dawkins. And then we get Vick.
Which is why you have to admire, mostly, the Phils moves of late, notwithstanding Eaton and Jenkins, who apparently are still on the payroll. The Cliff Lee acquiition has obviously been a home run, and for the first time I can remember, they have too many pitching options, save for a another hard throwing righty starter. My biggest concern, after Lidge, is that they are looking a little thin at catcher.
Thursday, August 6, 2009
Don't be stupid -- Pedro to the pen
I say use Pedro in the pen, which is the Phillies weakness right now, and keep a 5-man rotation with Moyers in the back. You can't just look at ERA. But you can't just look at wins. To steal from awful Denise Richards, "it's complicated."
The near-term schedule doesn't support a 6-man rotation. It's actually a good time to keep a 5-man rotation, cuz it gives the excuse of letting the phils skip a moyer start, which might help him without offending him. Moyers has pitched better of late, and for whatever reason, the team plays for him. So keep him in there. With Happ remaining solid plus Lee, we can afford to let Moyer pitch.
I am much more worried about the end of the staff, where Madson has once again shown he's much better as a set up guy than a closer. With Durbin so suddenly questionable and Lidge a rollercoaster ride, I think it behooves the Phils to find an alt for Lidge, and Pedro might be that guy. Certainly Moyer isn't. So why "waste" Pedro in the rotation, where it's not clear he's going to give us more innings than Moyer (even if he leaves more often with the lead). Better to pressure Lidge now.
Bring Pedro up now. Tell him he is primarily going to be used if Lidge melts down or needs a blow. And then he also gets first dibs on a long relief effort should a current starter get rocked or hurt.
Alternatively, I wouldn't be opposed to Martinez taking Chan Ho's role, and using Chan Ho to pressure Lidge as alt closer. But Park seems comfortable, and Martinez has proved he's good out of the pen, so I'd rather use Pedro and all his experience to save Lidge's ass when he needs it, which is every 3rd appearance or so. I'm not dissing Lidge -- I don't think he's healthy and he's not admitting it. Since he can still be effective, I think the best bet may be simply to reduce his load. He might even relax a little and pitch better.
Bottom line -- my bold statement is that this team might be best if it manages to make it impossible for Pedro to find a spot. Happ just shut one door. Let's see if Moyer now has an answer, since he's now officially on the hot seat. My guess is he responds. I think his 5+ ERA is worrying, but as much a red herring as his team leading win total.
If he does, then it's clear we have to put Pedro in the pen, so then I'd much rather he press Lidge or have a backup to Madsen and Park for when they go bad, which is once in a while. But if Lidge turns it on, Madsen remains solid as set up, Chan in long relief and other sticky situations, Romero, Durbin and Condrey coming back, maybe even Myers, and Walker and Eyre continuing, for the most part, to get it done, then maybe Martinez never finds a spot.
Chemistry can be everything in the playoffs. The best team only wins sometimes. Last year, Stairs, Moyer, even Bruntlett made major contributions, and this year, not as much. But I think it's silly to think you can always plug in better stats as an indicator of performance. Once in a while you get a CLiff Lee, other times it's Andy Ashby.
I don't care what Cairo's hitting. I'll stick with Bruntlett. Same with Stairs over Mayberry. And, for now, Moyer over Martinez. I think Cholly feels that and will do the right thing. It worked for Burrell last year, and Rollins this year.
And is anyone except me worried about what happens if Ruiz or Bako go down? Or whether Howard could use a few days off between now and October?
The near-term schedule doesn't support a 6-man rotation. It's actually a good time to keep a 5-man rotation, cuz it gives the excuse of letting the phils skip a moyer start, which might help him without offending him. Moyers has pitched better of late, and for whatever reason, the team plays for him. So keep him in there. With Happ remaining solid plus Lee, we can afford to let Moyer pitch.
I am much more worried about the end of the staff, where Madson has once again shown he's much better as a set up guy than a closer. With Durbin so suddenly questionable and Lidge a rollercoaster ride, I think it behooves the Phils to find an alt for Lidge, and Pedro might be that guy. Certainly Moyer isn't. So why "waste" Pedro in the rotation, where it's not clear he's going to give us more innings than Moyer (even if he leaves more often with the lead). Better to pressure Lidge now.
Bring Pedro up now. Tell him he is primarily going to be used if Lidge melts down or needs a blow. And then he also gets first dibs on a long relief effort should a current starter get rocked or hurt.
Alternatively, I wouldn't be opposed to Martinez taking Chan Ho's role, and using Chan Ho to pressure Lidge as alt closer. But Park seems comfortable, and Martinez has proved he's good out of the pen, so I'd rather use Pedro and all his experience to save Lidge's ass when he needs it, which is every 3rd appearance or so. I'm not dissing Lidge -- I don't think he's healthy and he's not admitting it. Since he can still be effective, I think the best bet may be simply to reduce his load. He might even relax a little and pitch better.
Bottom line -- my bold statement is that this team might be best if it manages to make it impossible for Pedro to find a spot. Happ just shut one door. Let's see if Moyer now has an answer, since he's now officially on the hot seat. My guess is he responds. I think his 5+ ERA is worrying, but as much a red herring as his team leading win total.
If he does, then it's clear we have to put Pedro in the pen, so then I'd much rather he press Lidge or have a backup to Madsen and Park for when they go bad, which is once in a while. But if Lidge turns it on, Madsen remains solid as set up, Chan in long relief and other sticky situations, Romero, Durbin and Condrey coming back, maybe even Myers, and Walker and Eyre continuing, for the most part, to get it done, then maybe Martinez never finds a spot.
Chemistry can be everything in the playoffs. The best team only wins sometimes. Last year, Stairs, Moyer, even Bruntlett made major contributions, and this year, not as much. But I think it's silly to think you can always plug in better stats as an indicator of performance. Once in a while you get a CLiff Lee, other times it's Andy Ashby.
I don't care what Cairo's hitting. I'll stick with Bruntlett. Same with Stairs over Mayberry. And, for now, Moyer over Martinez. I think Cholly feels that and will do the right thing. It worked for Burrell last year, and Rollins this year.
And is anyone except me worried about what happens if Ruiz or Bako go down? Or whether Howard could use a few days off between now and October?
Monday, August 3, 2009
Apple soon falling from the tree?
Just revisited AKS. did not know it ran up to 60 in commodity craze. I sold at 24 right before launch.
Ideas:
I think shorting AAPL may be an idea. They are going to lose the iPod gravy train soon. I don't know how much of their profit is generated by their iPhone contract with AT&T but they are making money off the phones and off the service. My feeling is that as phones get smarter, they will absorb personal media players. There will be a few people who still want their devices to be separate, but I can see those numbers dwindling substantially. Also, the luster of the iPhone, despite being great hardware, is fading. People hate AT&T and there is substantial grumbling about the app store and the recent google voice fiasco. If google can make android easier than linux on the desktop, which is likely, since hardware will be made for android, then I really don't see any reason why people will use the iPhone. In about a year, I bet there will be several different handsets which will compare favorably to the iPhone.
Apple has successfully moved into the phone market, but they seem like they are making the same mistake they made with their computers. They close the system, preventing others from developing on it, which limits their market.
Ideas:
I think shorting AAPL may be an idea. They are going to lose the iPod gravy train soon. I don't know how much of their profit is generated by their iPhone contract with AT&T but they are making money off the phones and off the service. My feeling is that as phones get smarter, they will absorb personal media players. There will be a few people who still want their devices to be separate, but I can see those numbers dwindling substantially. Also, the luster of the iPhone, despite being great hardware, is fading. People hate AT&T and there is substantial grumbling about the app store and the recent google voice fiasco. If google can make android easier than linux on the desktop, which is likely, since hardware will be made for android, then I really don't see any reason why people will use the iPhone. In about a year, I bet there will be several different handsets which will compare favorably to the iPhone.
Apple has successfully moved into the phone market, but they seem like they are making the same mistake they made with their computers. They close the system, preventing others from developing on it, which limits their market.
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